economy headed for a recession with or without the fiscal cliff, he says we're already in one. listen to what the person of the cycle research institute told me today. >> the recession has started. we are a few months in to it. and i think if you wanted to argue against me, i would point to jobs, jobs are still growing but looking at the last seven recessions in three of them, jobs continued to grow in to the recession. >> his group bases this on four economic indicators. let me show you. industrial production, that's all the stuff, top left, all the stuff made in the u.s. personal income, you know what that is, sales and employment. look at those lines. based on official government data this year they show a drop off in three of the four indicators starting in july. only employment is steady. that's july. that means we're in a recession right now. may sound obvious to some of you or ridiculous to others but when it comes to determining recessions, few have a better track record than ecri. back in 2001, the group predicted a recession when the vast majority of economists said i